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Wild Probabilities
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MrNexx
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Joined: 25 Mar 2016
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:01 pm    Post subject: Wild Probabilities Reply with quote

So, the default assumption is that 1d6 can be safely assumed to be 3.5 for the purposes of averages. Thus, 4D will have its bell curve center at about 14.

How does this change when one of the dice is wild? When one die explodes on a 6?
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Ray
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Or causes a complication or additional die removal on a 1?

Or, from my game, either risks an even worse complication, or just turns into a 1 at the end.

So far, my group lucked out in that they lost their backup hyperdrive instead of their primary one! If it had been a regular complication, they've have only lost the hyperdrive coolant tank.
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Bren
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sixes on the wild die are an infinite series. Somebody else crunched some numbers on a computer. Here.

For the 1 you need to assign probabilities to the three options or simplify by only considering one option (say take away the 1 and the highest die). I'm guessing someone already ran some numbers though I haven't bothered.
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cheshire
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Joined: 04 Jan 2004
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh man, someone did an article on this at some point. I think it was called "Never Tell Me the Odds."
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